Older modelling for energy data in the EU include the previous editions of the EU Reference Scenario and the EUCO scenarios. These exercises have served in previous EU energy, transport and climate policy framework analyses
Previous editions of the EU Reference Scenario
The EU Reference Scenario 2016
The main outputs from the EU Reference Scenario 2016 are
- The Reference Scenario 2016 - energy, transport and greenhouse gas emissions trend to 2050 - full report (16 August 2016)
- The Reference Scenario - summary of main results
- The Reference Scenario - presentation of main results
- Excel sheets with EU and EU country results
The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in these interactive graphs, developed by external contractors, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission’s behalf may be held responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Older Reference Scenario publications
- 2013 – EU energy, transport, and greenhouse gas emissions trends to 2050
- 2009 – EU energy trends to 2030
- 2007 – European energy and transport trends to 2030
- 2005 – European energy and transport trends to 2030
- 2003 – European energy and transport trends to 2030
The EUCO scenarios were produced in the context of the 'Clean energy for all Europeans' package, to help estimate the potential impact of the EU's climate and energy targets for 2030.
The EUCO3232.5 was produced in 2019 and models the impact of achieving an energy efficiency target of 32.5% and a renewable energy target of 32%, as agreed in the 'Clean energy for all Europeans' package. This scenario was used to support the Commission’s June 2019 assessment of the draft national energy and climate plans (NECPs), submitted by EU countries
The key projections are presented in the technical report on EUCO3232.5 scenario (June 2019).
EUCO27 and EUCO30
The EUCO scenarios were produced in 2016, as input for the different impact assessments and other documents which accompanied the 'Clean energy for all Europeans' package presented by the Commission in November 2016.
These scenarios were presented in the technical report on EUCO scenarios - PRIMES model results (January 2017).
GEM-E3 and E3ME model results
The EUCO scenarios were completed by macro-economic analysis published in December 2016.
- Technical report on EUCO scenarios - GEM-E3 model results
- Technical report on EUCO scenarios - E3ME model results )