Today, the EU network of transmission system operators for electricity, ENTSO-E, published its latest Winter Outlook 2023-2024, setting out the electricity security of supply situation in the EU, ahead of this winter, and providing an outlook on Ukraine and Moldova.
The report concludes an overall adequate electricity security of supply situation in the EU and in neighbouring countries connected to the EU grid, with only some limited risks of electricity supply mainly in remote areas (and islands), related to possible extreme weather conditions, especially when combined with high unplanned outages.
Winter outlook
According to the report, the security of supply situation has improved with EU gas storage filled around two and a half months ahead of the 1 November deadline set out in the EU Gas Regulation. This is the result of a strong European preparedness effort. The power generation fleet has expanded since the last winter (with increasing renewables, overcompensating the decrease in conventional thermal) and planned outages for this winter are lower. At the same time, demand for electricity is forecasted to remain stable.
Summer 2023
The Winter Outlook is accompanied by a retrospective analysis of last summer. No general adequacy issues were recorded during this period in Europe, despite high temperatures, with some regions experiencing heatwaves, and extreme weather events, such as wildfires and floodings.
Ukraine and Moldova
Ukraine and Moldova have been synchronised with the Continental European power system since March 2022, only weeks following Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine. Unprecedented efforts are being made to secure, to restore and renovate Ukraine’s infrastructure ahead of winter. Moldova’s power supply situation is reported as adequate but faces risks owing to heavy reliance on gas imports and uncertainties of electricity imports from its neighbours. Nevertheless, the country is taking action to mitigate potential risks. Together with ENTSO-E, the two countries continue to work together to further integration of their systems and increase interconnection capacities.
Background
ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, is the association for the cooperation of the European transmission system operators (TSOs). Its mission is to ensure the security of the inter-connected power system at pan-European level and ensuring well-functioning and development of European interconnected electricity markets. At the same time, it facilitates the integration of electricity generated from renewable energy sources and of emerging technologies.
ENTSO-E is legally mandated by the Risk Preparedness Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2019/941) to perform seasonal adequacy assessments (seasonal outlooks), the summer outlook before 1 June and the winter outlook before 1 December in each year.
The role of the seasonal reports is to identify when and where system adequacy — the balance between supply and demand for electricity — could be at risk for the next season. Outlooks are not forecasts of the future. Rather, they identify potential resource adequacy risks at a specific point in time for the upcoming season and which can be addressed proactively with preparation or mitigation measures.
Related links
Details
- Publication date
- 16 November 2023
- Author
- Directorate-General for Energy